U.S. Consumer Confidence Falls to a Low Level, LME Copper Fluctuated and Closed Lower Last Friday [SMM Copper Morning Meeting Minutes]

2025-11-10 Monday

Futures: On Friday night, LME copper opened at $10,743.5/mt. After the opening, the center of copper prices moved downward, then touched a high of $10,750/mt, and finally fluctuated downward, touching a low of $10,682/mt near the end of the session, closing at $10,695/mt with a 0.07% increase. Trading volume reached 12,000 lots, and open interest was 334,000 lots. The most-traded SHFE copper 2512 contract opened at 86,110 yuan/mt on Friday night, immediately reaching a high of 86,220 yuan/mt, then declining to a low of 85,750 yuan/mt, and finally closed at 85,920 yuan/mt after consolidating, with a 0.03% decrease. Trading volume was 30,000 lots, and open interest was 204,000 lots.

[SMM Copper Morning Meeting Summary] News:

(1) On November 7, Vedanta Resources announced the establishment of US-registered company CopperTech Metals Inc., whose mission is to meet the copper resource security needs of the US. This India-based mining company stated that it will leverage the surge in copper demand driven by data center expansion, power grid modernization, national defense technology development, and industrial repatriation. CopperTech will own and operate the Konkola copper mine in Zambia.

Spot:

(1) Shanghai: On November 7, SMM #1 copper cathode spot prices against the front-month 2511 contract ranged from a discount of 20 yuan/mt to a premium of 100 yuan/mt, with an average quote of a 40-yuan/mt premium, up 10 yuan/mt from the previous trading day; SMM #1 copper cathode prices were 85,890~86,140 yuan/mt. In the morning, SHFE copper rose from 85,900 yuan/mt to 86,040 yuan/mt, then retreated to around 85,750 yuan/mt. The cross-month price spread fluctuated between C20-B10 yuan/mt, and the import loss for the current month's SHFE copper narrowed to about 700 yuan/mt. Looking ahead to this week, as delivery approaches, the discount is expected to further narrow. With copper prices currently fluctuating around 86,000 yuan/mt, downstream buyers who have received orders are expected to replenish their stocks, and transactions are expected to continue improving this week.

(2) Guangdong: On November 7, SMM #1 copper cathode spot prices against the current month's contract ranged from a discount of 40 yuan/mt to a premium of 10 yuan/mt, with an average quote of a 15-yuan/mt premium, unchanged from the previous trading day; SX-EW copper prices ranged from a discount of 110 yuan/mt to a discount of 70 yuan/mt, with an average quote of a 90-yuan/mt discount, also unchanged from the previous trading day. The average price of SMM #1 copper cathode in Guangdong was 85,915 yuan/mt, up 185 yuan/mt from the previous trading day, while the average price of SX-EW copper was 85,840 yuan/mt, also up 185 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. Overall, with copper prices remaining high, downstream restocking desire is moderate, and spot trades are mediocre.

(3) Imported copper: On November 7, warrant prices were $30 to $40/mt, QP November, with the average price unchanged from the previous trading day; B/L prices were $38 to $50/mt, QP November, with the average price also unchanged from the previous trading day. EQ copper (CIF B/L) prices ranged from -16 to 4 dollars/mt, QP November, with the average price unchanged from the previous trading day, based on shipments arriving in mid-to-late November.

(4) Secondary Copper: At 11:30 on November 7, the futures closing price was 85,820 yuan/mt, down 480 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The average spot premium/discount was 40 yuan/mt, up 10 yuan/mt from the previous day. Today, the price of recycled copper raw materials remained flat MoM. The price of bare bright copper in Guangdong was 77,800-78,000 yuan/mt, unchanged from the previous trading day. The price difference between copper cathode and copper scrap was 2,988 yuan/mt, down 470 yuan/mt MoM. The price difference between copper cathode rod and secondary copper rod was 1,380 yuan/mt. According to the SMM survey, copper prices consolidated during the day. Secondary copper rod enterprises reported flat trading volume and average orders. Additionally, with average orders, the procurement sentiment of secondary copper rod enterprises pulled back, while the price of recycled copper raw materials held steady.

(5) Inventories: On November 6, LME copper cathode inventories increased by 1,425 mt to 135,900 mt. On November 7, SHFE warrant inventories decreased by 499 mt to 43,394 mt.

Prices: On the macro front, Trump stated that he did not know how long the government shutdown would last. Coupled with the US November Michigan Consumer Sentiment reading of 50.3, which fell to its lowest level since June 2022, market uncertainty intensified, putting copper prices under pressure. On the fundamentals side, supply side, imported supplies and state-owned supplies were relatively concentrated, while non-registered supplies and SX-EW copper remained relatively tight, leading to an overall tight supply. Demand side, as copper prices fell, downstream restocking willingness improved, and trading volume rebounded. Overall, given the fundamental backdrop of tightening supply and rebounding demand, copper prices were expected to find support at lower levels today.

[The information provided is for reference only. This article does not constitute direct investment research or decision-making advice. Clients should make decisions cautiously and not use this to replace their own independent judgment. Any decisions made by clients are unrelated to SMM.]